NOISEHUNTLAB

Markets are very good at fooling people. Find out how good.

Two ways in: play short games built on real prices and honest statistics, or read a weekly report on what the market actually did, measured against what chance alone would do.

Free, no sign-up, new daily puzzles at 00:00 UTC, reports on Saturdays.

• Noise Hunt: Search a price chart for a winning trading rule. You will find one. Then bet on whether it is real.
• Real or Random?: Ten pairs of charts. One is a real stock, one is a random walk. Can you beat a coin flip?
• The Star Manager: Two hundred fund managers, three years of track record. Hire the best, then live with it: keep, switch or give up, one year at a time.
• How Bad Can It Get?: Set a worst-day limit for a real portfolio, then let the next real year test it. Count the breaches, and see what the days beyond your limit look like.
• Size the Bet: Every trade wins 60% of the time, and you have 100 of them. Bet too little and you crawl; bet too much and one bad streak ends the game. Find the size that grows.
• The Frontier: Five real stocks and their last three years. Build a portfolio, see how close you came to the efficient frontier, then watch the year after test the "optimal" one.
• Name the Factor: A fund that beat the market. Take it apart into market, size, value and momentum, then decide: was any of it skill?
• Options School: Six short episodes on why so many retail option traders lose money: cheap options, time decay, events, selling, costs and lot size. In rupees, with simulated prices.
• Portfolio Challenge: Three to ten real stocks, $100,000 and a year of history replayed day by day. Hit the target within your limits, then see how you did against your starting mix left alone, an equal-weight mix and the index.

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