← REPORTS · EQUITIES · 24 October 2026
Week ending 23 Oct 2026: S&P 500 -0.4%, but most stocks rose
The week in one number
The S&P 500 (SPY) moved -0.4% this week. while its equal-weight counterpart gained 1.1% and 65% of our tracked stocks rose. Cybersecurity and software gained 7.4% and 6.0%, showing how much the headline index concealed. Measured against its own volatility over the past year that is a 0.3σ week, and over the last 262 weeks a move at least this large, either way, happened most weeks.
The chart shows the most recent 260 of those 262 weeks.
Indices and assets
| Week | Year to date | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -0.4% | +12.3% |
| S&P 500 equal weight (RSP) | +1.1% | +14.4% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | -0.8% | +15.1% |
| Russell 2000 small caps (IWM) | +2.0% | +12.8% |
| Dow Jones (DIA) | +0.4% | +9.7% |
| 20+ year Treasuries (TLT) | +1.6% | -3.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | -4.0% | -7.5% |
| VIX (volatility index, level) | 19.5 (-0.5 pts) | — |
Sectors
Energy led (+1.6%) and Communication lagged (-4.4%): a spread of 6.0 percentage points between the best and worst sector.
| Sector ETF | Week | 4 weeks | 13 weeks | Rank over the 13 weeks before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy (XLE) | +1.6% | +11.8% | +17.0% | 1 of 11 |
| Health care (XLV) | +1.5% | +5.0% | +10.7% | 2 of 11 |
| Real estate (XLRE) | +1.0% | +2.4% | -6.6% | 11 of 11 |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.8% | +7.7% | -7.4% | 9 of 11 |
| Materials (XLB) | +0.8% | +3.0% | +0.6% | 5 of 11 |
| Consumer staples (XLP) | +0.7% | +7.6% | +5.6% | 4 of 11 |
| Financials (XLF) | +0.7% | +1.9% | -0.4% | 7 of 11 |
| Consumer discretionary (XLY) | +0.6% | +2.3% | +3.6% | 8 of 11 |
| Technology (XLK) | -0.1% | -6.6% | +4.3% | 3 of 11 |
| Industrials (XLI) | -1.9% | -3.4% | -9.6% | 10 of 11 |
| Communication (XLC) | -4.4% | -6.6% | -0.4% | 6 of 11 |
Energy, this week's best sector, was 1st of 11 over the 13 weeks before; Communication, the worst, was 6th. One week's order says little on its own: the longer columns show which moves are new and which continue.
Styles and factors
| Style ETF | Week | Against the S&P 500 | Its typical weekly gap | 4 weeks | 13 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum (MTUM) | -1.3% | -0.8% | ±1.2 pts | -9.1% | -5.3% |
| Value (VLUE) | +0.5% | +0.9% | ±1.1 pts | -4.2% | -0.3% |
| Quality (QUAL) | -0.9% | -0.5% | ±0.5 pts | -0.3% | +3.0% |
| Low volatility (USMV) | +1.7% | +2.1% | ±1.0 pts | +4.7% | +6.5% |
| Small caps (IWM) | +2.0% | +2.4% | ±1.0 pts | -2.2% | -5.0% |
The largest gap, set against each fund's own usual gap, was Small caps (IWM): 2.4 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500; a gap at least this wide occurred in 7 of the previous 52 weeks. It is the most unusual of the 5 funds above, picked for being unusual. Each fund holds the stocks a published rule picks for one trait; a week or two of one trait doing better says little about the next.
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Themes
| Thematic ETF | Week | Against the S&P 500 | Its typical weekly gap | 4 weeks | 13 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | +7.4% | +7.8% | ±2.2 pts | +5.1% | +20.0% |
| Software (IGV) | +6.0% | +6.4% | ±2.7 pts | +4.3% | +25.7% |
| Regional banks (KRE) | +3.8% | +4.2% | ±1.9 pts | +1.3% | -3.8% |
| Homebuilders (XHB) | +3.7% | +4.1% | ±2.4 pts | +0.1% | -8.8% |
| Biotech (XBI) | +3.6% | +4.0% | ±1.9 pts | -3.5% | -0.6% |
| Airlines (JETS) | +1.0% | +1.4% | ±2.8 pts | -9.9% | -13.3% |
| ARK Innovation (ARKK) | +0.4% | +0.8% | ±2.2 pts | -9.7% | +14.0% |
| Robotics & AI (BOTZ) | +0.0% | +0.4% | ±1.8 pts | -6.7% | -2.4% |
| Solar (TAN) | -1.9% | -1.4% | ±2.8 pts | -6.8% | -19.9% |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | -2.3% | -1.9% | ±2.6 pts | -13.1% | -6.1% |
| Aerospace & defence (ITA) | -3.3% | -2.8% | ±1.8 pts | -5.4% | -15.7% |
| Uranium (URA) | -3.7% | -3.3% | ±3.7 pts | -16.6% | -14.5% |
The largest gap, set against each fund's own usual gap, was Cybersecurity (CIBR): 7.8 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500; a gap at least this wide occurred in 2 of the previous 52 weeks. It is the most unusual of the 12 funds above, picked for being unusual. Thematic funds hold a few dozen stocks from one industry, so they swing more than the index and their gaps to it are wider; set against its own usual gap, a theme's week can be told apart from its normal swing, but not from news it shares with its sector.
Sectors over time
Do sector leaders keep leading? Comparing each 13-week period with the next, 19 times since Oct 2021 (neighbouring comparisons share a period, so these are not 19 separate tests), the 3 best sector ETFs of one period were among the next period's 3 best 35% of the time, and the 3 worst stayed among the worst 21% of the time. If the order were random, both would average about 27%; in a simulation with random orders over the same number of periods, the average landed between 19% and 35% nine times in ten. The average rank correlation between one period's returns and the next was -0.03 (0 = no relation; random orders give -0.12 to 0.11 nine times in ten). Random orders gave a top-3 share at least as high as 35% in 9% of simulations, a bottom-3 share at least as low as 21% in 16%, and a correlation at least as far from 0 in 72%: none of these is rare enough to tell apart from luck.
Under the surface
Of the stocks in our 518-stock tracked universe, 65% rose, and 68% beat the index itself. The typical (median) stock moved +1.3%, the average (equal-weight) stock +1.0%.
The S&P 500 (-0.4%) trailed its equal-weight version (RSP, +1.1%), which gives every member the same weight, by 1.6 percentage points: the largest companies did worse than the typical member. A gap at least this wide, either way, came in 23% of the past 52 weeks (typical: 1.0 percentage point).
The spread between winners and losers (the gap between the stock at the 75th percentile and the one at the 25th) was 4.9%, wider than 52% of the past year's weeks (typical: 4.8%). 61 stocks closed at a 52-week high during the week and 19 at a 52-week low.
Stocks moved together less closely than in 60% of the past 52 weeks: the average correlation between pairs of stocks' daily returns was 0.10 (typical: 0.12; 0 would mean no linear relationship, 1 that they moved in lockstep). When stocks move together, holding more of them spreads risk less. Five days is a short window for any one pair, but the same measure is taken every week over 518 stocks, so the weeks can be compared.
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The sectors below are our database's industry groups, not the ETF sectors above, and every stock counts equally, so the two can differ: Technology's typical stock rose 2.9% while the size-weighted XLK slipped 0.1%.
| Sector | Stocks | Median stock | Share that rose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 68 | +2.9% | |
| Consumer, Non-cyclical | 102 | +2.0% | |
| Utilities | 31 | +1.8% | |
| Energy | 22 | +1.8% | |
| Financial | 95 | +1.4% | |
| Industrial | 82 | +1.1% | |
| Consumer, Cyclical | 57 | +0.8% | |
| Basic Materials | 17 | +0.4% | |
| Communications | 44 | -0.6% |
Sector by sector, day by day. Each cell is the share of a sector's stocks that rose that day. The most one-way day was Tuesday: 9 of 9 sectors had more than half their stocks rise; the most divided was Wednesday, with 5 sectors mostly up and 4 mostly down. Moves shared across sectors can be consistent with influences common to the whole market, and divided days with ones specific to industries; breadth alone cannot identify the cause. 9 sectors with at least 5 stocks are shown.
| Sector | Stocks | Median stock | Gap, 75th to 25th percentile stock | Typical gap | Wider than |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial | 82 | +1.1% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 96% of 52 past weeks |
| Communications | 44 | -0.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 83% of 52 past weeks |
| Technology | 68 | +2.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 60% of 52 past weeks |
| Financial | 95 | +1.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 56% of 52 past weeks |
| Basic Materials | 17 | +0.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 50% of 52 past weeks |
| Consumer, Non-cyclical | 102 | +2.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 40% of 52 past weeks |
| Utilities | 31 | +1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 38% of 52 past weeks |
| Consumer, Cyclical | 57 | +0.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 29% of 52 past weeks |
| Energy | 22 | +1.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 29% of 52 past weeks |
How far apart stocks in the same sector ended the week. The gap between the sector's 75th and 25th percentile stock, set against the same gap for the same stocks in each past week. Industrial stocks were the most spread out against their usual: a gap of 6.5% against a typical 4.2%, wider than in 96% of the past 52 weeks. A wide gap means the sector's stocks went their own ways; a narrow one means they moved more alike than usual. Company announcements can widen dispersion within a sector. With 17 to 102 stocks in a sector, the gap also moves around from week to week by itself.
The luck check
29 stocks moved more than 10% this week (15 up, 14 down), counted on our database's closes. If each stock's weekly return were an independent draw from a bell curve with its usual weekly swing, we would expect about 20.8. That is above the range this simple model gives for 90% of weeks (14 to 28), so a count this high would be unusual if the model were right. Three things can each produce it: an eventful week for single stocks; returns with fatter tails than a bell curve, which they are known to have; and stocks moving together (this week's average correlation was 0.10), which the model ignores by treating them as independent. The count alone cannot say which.
Measured against the past instead of a model: over the last 52 weeks the count was typically 26, and this week's 29 was higher than in 54% of them and lower than in 46%.
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Biggest movers
| Gainers | Sector | Week |
|---|---|---|
| HAS | Consumer, Cyclical | +18.9% |
| CRL | Consumer, Non-cyclical | +15.1% |
| ROP | Technology | +14.5% |
| ALLE | Industrial | +14.3% |
| CRWD | Technology | +13.3% |
| Losers | Sector | Week |
|---|---|---|
| FIX | Industrial | -19.3% |
| HWM | Industrial | -15.9% |
| FLEX | Industrial | -15.4% |
| PWR | Consumer, Non-cyclical | -13.5% |
| LRCX | Technology | -12.8% |
Earnings this week, after the fact
| Company | Reported | Move | S&P 500 | Its usual move | Bigger than |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFX | Tue 20 Oct, before the open | +11.3% | +0.3% | ±3.7% | 11 of 12 past |
| ROP | Thu 22 Oct, before the open | +9.7% | -1.2% | ±3.4% | 12 of 12 past |
| PG | Thu 22 Oct, before the open | +5.6% | -1.2% | ±2.2% | 12 of 12 past |
| LRCX | Wed 21 Oct, after the close | -11.8% | -1.2% | ±4.8% | 11 of 12 past |
| ALLE | Thu 22 Oct, before the open | +11.0% | -1.2% | ±4.7% | 12 of 12 past |
| T | Wed 21 Oct, before the open | -6.4% | +0.5% | ±3.2% | 11 of 12 past |
| HAS | Tue 20 Oct, before the open | +11.2% | +0.3% | ±6.7% | 8 of 12 past |
| LMT | Thu 22 Oct, before the open | +7.0% | -1.2% | ±4.4% | 9 of 12 past |
| FIX | Thu 22 Oct, after the close | -9.3% | -0.5% | ±6.2% | 7 of 12 past |
| UNP | Thu 22 Oct, before the open | +3.6% | -1.2% | ±3.2% | 6 of 12 past |
| AXP | Fri 23 Oct, before the open | -3.7% | -0.5% | ±3.7% | 6 of 12 past |
| CMCSA | Thu 22 Oct, before the open | +3.4% | -1.2% | ±4.0% | 5 of 12 past |
These are selected, not a sample: from the companies we checked that reported this week (the largest companies, those on last week's schedule and this week's biggest movers), the table shows up to 12, those whose moves were largest against their own usual move. Among these 12 selected earnings reactions, 10 moved more than the company's own typical earnings-day move; that says how they were picked, not how earnings go in general. A 5% move on results is ordinary for some companies and rare for others, so each move is set against the same company's past reports rather than against the market. The move includes everything else that happened on those days; the S&P 500 column is the whole market over the same days. "Its usual move" is the median size of the company's moves, up or down, on up to 12 earlier reports.
Last week's movers, one week on
| Last week's mover | Was a | Last week | This week |
|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | gainer | +15.5% | +5.7% |
| CTSH | gainer | +11.5% | +6.8% |
| ACN | gainer | +10.7% | +8.6% |
| EFX | gainer | +10.6% | +13.1% |
| BRO | gainer | +10.4% | +5.1% |
| CIEN | loser | -26.0% | -3.7% |
| COHR | loser | -25.5% | -10.1% |
| RKLB | loser | -25.5% | +3.5% |
| LITE | loser | -25.3% | -8.2% |
| CRWV | loser | -25.2% | -11.7% |
5 of last week's 5 biggest gainers rose again this week (average +7.9%); 4 of last week's 5 biggest losers fell again this week (average -6.1%). Five names a side is far too few to say whether big weekly moves tend to continue or reverse: the record builds up week by week.
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What this week does not tell us
- This week’s small overall S&P 500 move means the market is stable. The S&P 500 moved less than 82% of past weeks, but one week is too short to conclude stability or calm; market moves vary naturally week to week.
- Equal weight beat the S&P 500, so smaller companies are taking over. RSP holds the same 500 large companies, each with the same weight. The 1.6-point gap only says the biggest names lagged this week. A gap this wide came about one week in four over the past year.
- The sectors that did best this week will keep doing best. Over 19 comparisons of one 13-week period with the next, the top 3 sector ETFs were still in the top 3 35% of the time, against about 27% if the order were random. Random orders gave 35% or more in 9% of simulations, so this is not rare enough to tell apart from luck.
- Many big moves means something market-wide happened. 29 stocks moved more than 10%: more than the bell curve's range (14–28), but close to the past 52 weeks' median of 26. Half of the ten biggest movers moved on their own results (HAS, ROP, ALLE, FIX, LRCX).
Scheduled next week
- VZ reports earnings on Mon 26 Oct
- BA reports earnings on Tue 27 Oct
- KO reports earnings on Tue 27 Oct
- SPGI reports earnings on Tue 27 Oct
- FLEX reports earnings on Wed 28 Oct
- V reports earnings on Wed 28 Oct
- CAT reports earnings on Thu 29 Oct
- GOOGL reports earnings on Thu 29 Oct
- HWM reports earnings on Thu 29 Oct
- LLY reports earnings on Thu 29 Oct
- MA reports earnings on Thu 29 Oct
- MRK reports earnings on Thu 29 Oct
- MSFT reports earnings on Thu 29 Oct
- NOW reports earnings on Thu 29 Oct
- PWR reports earnings on Thu 29 Oct
- ABBV reports earnings on Fri 30 Oct
- AMZN reports earnings on Fri 30 Oct
- CVX reports earnings on Fri 30 Oct
- INTC reports earnings on Fri 30 Oct
- XOM reports earnings on Fri 30 Oct
Data: index, sector, style and thematic ETF, VIX and named-stock prices from Yahoo Finance (adjusted closes); earnings dates and times from Yahoo Finance; breadth (overall and by sector and day), dispersion (overall and within each sector), how closely stocks moved together, highs and lows and the luck check computed from unadjusted daily closes of our 518-stock tracked universe (the US stocks, drawn from S&P 500 names, that our trading database tracks, with each share class counted (FOX/FOXA, NWS/NWSA); this list is not reconciled with the index's official constituents for the week, and at 518 it is larger than the index's ~503 lines, so it includes some stocks that are not current members), published as aggregates only. Weeks run Friday close to Friday close. Not investment advice.
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