← REPORTS · EQUITIES · 07 November 2026
Week ending 6 Nov 2026: S&P 500 -2.7% in election week, as 102 stocks moved over 10%
Data and context for education, not investment advice.
THE WEEK IN THREE LINES
- The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, yet 51% of the 518 stocks we track rose; the equal-weight S&P 500 lost only 1.0%.
- Most of the fall came on Thursday 5 November (−4.4%), after a 1.7% rise on Wednesday; semiconductor and data-centre stocks had already fallen on Wednesday.
- 102 stocks moved more than 10%, more than in any week of the past year (median 28); energy (−12.0%) and technology (−8.2%) fell hardest.
IN THIS REPORT · 14 SECTIONS
The week in one number#
The S&P 500 (SPY) moved -2.7% this week. Measured against its own volatility over the past year that is a 1.6σ week, and over the last 262 weeks a move at least this large, either way, happened about 1 week in 6.
Indices and assets#
| Week | Year to date | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -2.7% | +8.7% |
| S&P 500 equal weight (RSP) | -1.0% | +14.1% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | -5.0% | +7.2% |
| Russell 2000 small caps (IWM) | -2.0% | +11.9% |
| Dow Jones (DIA) | -0.9% | +7.8% |
| 20+ year Treasuries (TLT) | +0.1% | -3.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | +4.7% | -6.0% |
| VIX (volatility index, level) | 25.6 (+6.2 pts) | — |
Election week: Wednesday and Thursday#
The US midterm elections were held on Tuesday 3 November. SPY, the S&P 500 fund used throughout this report, rose 1.65% on Wednesday 4 November and fell 4.41% on Thursday 5 November (the index itself: +1.58% and −4.36%). Most of the week's 2.7% fall came on that one day. The question is whether the stocks most exposed to the election coverage reacted on Wednesday, hidden under a broad rally, or only on Thursday.
This section uses a different stock list from the rest of the report: 502 S&P 500 members, grouped by GICS sector, with prices from Yahoo Finance. Elsewhere the report uses our 518-stock universe and our database's own industry groups, so counts differ a little, and "energy" differs too: here it is the GICS energy sector (oil and gas companies), while our database's groups also put some other companies, such as First Solar, under Energy. The exposed groups are the ones news coverage named after the vote, when the two days' moves were already known, so this is an exploratory comparison, not a test.
| Group | Stocks | Wed 4 Nov | Thu 5 Nov | Wed vs rest | Thu vs rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | 19 | -3.0% | -11.8% | -5.6 pts | -9.3 pts |
| Data-centre power and construction | 15 | -7.5% | -8.4% | -10.0 pts | -5.9 pts |
| Hyperscalers | 6 | +3.1% | -3.5% | +0.5 pts | -0.9 pts |
| Energy (oil) | 21 | -5.2% | -3.4% | -7.8 pts | -0.8 pts |
| Everything else | 441 | +2.6% | -2.5% | — | — |
Wednesday: hidden, not absent. 376 of 502 S&P 500 stocks rose and the median stock gained 2.6%, but three of the groups named in the election coverage were already falling: data-centre power and construction (−7.5%), energy (−5.2%) and semiconductors (−3.0%). Energy's fall came as Brent crude dropped about $10 a barrel on reported bets that the Iran war would end, which is news about oil rather than the vote. The hyperscalers were the exception, up 3.1%.
Thursday: the fall reaches the index. Only 73 of 502 stocks rose. Semiconductors fell 11.8%, 9.3 points more than the rest of the market, but the rest fell too (−2.5%), so much of the day's drop was broad rather than confined to the exposed groups.
Did Thursday continue Wednesday? Partly. Of the 108 stocks that fell more than 5% on Thursday, 66 had also fallen on Wednesday, and the correlation between each stock's Wednesday and Thursday returns was +0.42. The other 42 had risen on Wednesday, and the hyperscalers, which held up on Wednesday, fell on Thursday: the second day reached stocks the first day had not.
What else happened on Thursday. News reports named several things at once: scrutiny of AI and data-centre spending linked to the election results, weak results and outlooks from Qualcomm and Arm, a jump in oil after reported attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, and shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve's December decision. Because these overlapped, two days of prices cannot say how much of Thursday's fall was the election. The exposed groups' gap to the rest is a comparison, not an estimate of the election's effect or a limit on it: the election could have moved the rest of the market too, and company results, each stock's sensitivity to the market and the other news could each widen or narrow the gap.
Sources: AP via NBC Bay Area, 5 Nov 2026; finzdata, 5 Nov 2026; for Wednesday, TheStreet, 4 Nov 2026.
How this section is measured: each stock's return on each day is its adjusted-close return from Yahoo Finance. Groups are equal-weighted, so a group's figure is its average member's return, not its weight in the index. The exposed groups are fixed ticker lists, and energy is the whole GICS sector. "Vs rest" compares a group with every stock outside the exposed groups and energy.
Sectors#
Communication led (+4.9%) and Energy lagged (-12.0%): a spread of 16.9 percentage points between the best and worst sector.
| Sector ETF | Week | 4 weeks | 13 weeks | Rank over the 13 weeks before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication (XLC) | +4.9% | -5.1% | -5.5% | 11 of 11 |
| Real estate (XLRE) | +1.9% | +5.7% | -1.4% | 9 of 11 |
| Consumer discretionary (XLY) | +1.9% | +4.2% | -1.7% | 6 of 11 |
| Financials (XLF) | +1.2% | +4.4% | -0.4% | 7 of 11 |
| Consumer staples (XLP) | +0.7% | +8.0% | +6.5% | 3 of 11 |
| Health care (XLV) | +0.0% | +8.2% | +12.0% | 2 of 11 |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.7% | +4.2% | -0.4% | 8 of 11 |
| Materials (XLB) | -1.5% | +5.1% | -1.3% | 4 of 11 |
| Industrials (XLI) | -2.8% | -3.9% | -11.9% | 10 of 11 |
| Technology (XLK) | -8.2% | -17.1% | -12.3% | 5 of 11 |
| Energy (XLE) | -12.0% | -5.3% | +7.8% | 1 of 11 |
Communication, this week's best sector, was 11th of 11 over the 13 weeks before; Energy, the worst, was 1st. One week's order says little on its own: the longer columns show which moves are new and which continue.
Styles and factors#
| Style ETF | Week | Against the S&P 500 | Its typical weekly gap | 4 weeks | 13 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum (MTUM) | -10.2% | -7.5% | ±1.2 pts | -20.3% | -17.4% |
| Value (VLUE) | -6.3% | -3.6% | ±1.1 pts | -8.7% | -7.4% |
| Quality (QUAL) | -1.4% | +1.3% | ±0.5 pts | -3.4% | -2.6% |
| Low volatility (USMV) | -1.7% | +1.1% | ±1.0 pts | +0.7% | +0.9% |
| Small caps (IWM) | -2.0% | +0.7% | ±1.1 pts | -1.9% | -9.0% |
The largest gap, set against each fund's own usual gap, was Momentum (MTUM): 7.5 percentage points behind the S&P 500; wider than in any of the previous 52 weeks. It is the most unusual of the 5 funds above, picked for being unusual. Each fund holds the stocks a published rule picks for one trait; a week or two of one trait doing better says little about the next.
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Themes#
| Thematic ETF | Week | Against the S&P 500 | Its typical weekly gap | 4 weeks | 13 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar (TAN) | +13.4% | +16.1% | ±2.8 pts | +4.2% | -13.6% |
| Airlines (JETS) | +6.6% | +9.4% | ±2.8 pts | +4.6% | -11.7% |
| Homebuilders (XHB) | +1.3% | +4.0% | ±2.5 pts | +7.9% | -7.2% |
| Regional banks (KRE) | +0.3% | +3.0% | ±1.9 pts | +4.6% | -4.7% |
| Aerospace & defence (ITA) | -1.3% | +1.4% | ±1.9 pts | +0.1% | -17.4% |
| Biotech (XBI) | -2.4% | +0.3% | ±2.1 pts | -1.0% | -3.3% |
| Robotics & AI (BOTZ) | -3.6% | -0.9% | ±1.8 pts | -12.5% | -17.4% |
| Uranium (URA) | -4.1% | -1.4% | ±3.6 pts | -16.9% | -28.0% |
| Software (IGV) | -5.2% | -2.5% | ±2.8 pts | -12.2% | -3.7% |
| Innovation (ARK) (ARKK) | -6.6% | -3.8% | ±2.2 pts | -15.8% | -5.0% |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | -9.9% | -7.2% | ±2.3 pts | -17.2% | -7.0% |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | -11.2% | -8.5% | ±2.5 pts | -23.1% | -20.4% |
The largest gap, set against each fund's own usual gap, was Solar (TAN): 16.1 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500; wider than in any of the previous 52 weeks. It is the most unusual of the 12 funds above, picked for being unusual. Thematic funds hold a few dozen stocks from one industry, so they swing more than the index and their gaps to it are wider; set against its own usual gap, a theme's week can be told apart from its normal swing, but not from news it shares with its sector.
Sectors over time#
Do sector leaders keep leading? Comparing each 13-week period with the next, 19 times since Nov 2021 (neighbouring comparisons share a period, so these are not 19 separate tests), the 3 best sector ETFs of one period were among the next period's 3 best 32% of the time, and the 3 worst stayed among the worst 25% of the time. If the order were random, both would average about 27%; in a simulation with random orders over the same number of periods, the average landed between 19% and 35% nine times in ten. The average rank correlation between one period's returns and the next was -0.07 (0 = no relation; random orders give -0.12 to 0.11 nine times in ten). Random orders gave a top-3 share at least as high as 32% in 26% of simulations, a bottom-3 share at least as low as 25% in 37%, and a correlation at least as far from 0 in 31%: none of these is rare enough to tell apart from luck.
Under the surface#
Of the stocks in our 518-stock tracked universe, 51% rose, and 69% beat the index itself. The typical (median) stock moved +0.2%, the average (equal-weight) stock -1.3%.
The S&P 500 (-2.7%) trailed its equal-weight version (RSP, -1.0%), which gives every member the same weight, by 1.7 percentage points: the largest companies did worse than the average member. A gap at least this wide, either way, came in 13% of the past 52 weeks (typical: 1.1 percentage points).
The spread between winners and losers (the gap between the stock at the 75th percentile and the one at the 25th) was 7.7%, wider than 98% of the past year's weeks (typical: 4.9%). 85 stocks closed at a 52-week high during the week and 13 at a 52-week low.
Stocks moved together more closely than in 85% of the past 52 weeks: the average correlation between pairs of stocks' daily returns was 0.26 (typical: 0.11; 0 would mean no linear relationship, 1 that they moved in lockstep). When stocks move together, holding more of them spreads risk less. Five days is a short window for any one pair, but the same measure is taken every week over 518 stocks, so the weeks can be compared.
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| Sector | Stocks | Median stock | Share that rose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer, Cyclical | 57 | +2.8% | |
| Consumer, Non-cyclical | 101 | +1.7% | |
| Communications | 44 | +1.1% | |
| Financial | 95 | +1.1% | |
| Utilities | 31 | -0.2% | |
| Industrial | 82 | -2.0% | |
| Basic Materials | 17 | -3.2% | |
| Technology | 69 | -9.9% | |
| Energy | 22 | -12.1% |
Sector by sector, day by day. Each cell is the share of a sector's stocks that rose that day. The most one-way day was Thursday: 9 of 9 sectors had more than half their stocks fall; the most divided was Tuesday, with 3 sectors mostly up and 6 mostly down. Moves shared across sectors can be consistent with influences common to the whole market, and divided days with ones specific to industries; breadth alone cannot identify the cause. 9 sectors with at least 5 stocks are shown.
| Sector | Stocks | Median stock | Gap, 75th to 25th percentile stock | Typical gap | Wider than |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basic Materials | 17 | -3.2% | 11.9% | 5.1% | all 52 past weeks |
| Technology | 69 | -9.9% | 14.8% | 7.4% | 96% of 52 past weeks |
| Industrial | 82 | -2.0% | 7.9% | 4.2% | all 52 past weeks |
| Communications | 44 | +1.1% | 9.9% | 5.7% | 98% of 52 past weeks |
| Utilities | 31 | -0.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 98% of 52 past weeks |
| Consumer, Non-cyclical | 101 | +1.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 98% of 52 past weeks |
| Financial | 95 | +1.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 83% of 52 past weeks |
| Energy | 22 | -12.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 60% of 52 past weeks |
| Consumer, Cyclical | 57 | +2.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 67% of 52 past weeks |
How far apart stocks in the same sector ended the week. The gap between the sector's 75th and 25th percentile stock, set against the same gap for the same stocks in each past week. Basic Materials stocks were the most spread out against their usual: a gap of 11.9% against a typical 5.1%, wider than in any of the past 52 weeks. A wide gap means the sector's stocks went their own ways; a narrow one means they moved more alike than usual. Company announcements can widen dispersion within a sector. With 17 to 101 stocks in a sector, the gap also moves around from week to week by itself.
The luck check#
102 stocks moved more than 10% this week (25 up, 77 down), counted on our database's closes. If each stock's weekly return were an independent draw from a bell curve with its usual weekly swing, we would expect about 21.9. That is above the range this simple model gives for 90% of weeks (15 to 29), so a count this high would be unusual if the model were right. Three things can each produce it: an eventful week for single stocks; returns with fatter tails than a bell curve, which they are known to have; and stocks moving together (this week's average correlation was 0.26), which the model ignores by treating them as independent. The count alone cannot say which.
Measured against the past instead of a model: over the last 52 weeks the count was typically 28, and this week's 102 was higher than in any of them.
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Biggest movers#
| Gainers | Sector | Week |
|---|---|---|
| APP | Communications | +71.2% |
| FISV | Technology | +25.7% |
| IDXX | Consumer, Non-cyclical | +22.6% |
| MOS | Basic Materials | +21.6% |
| ABNB | Communications | +15.6% |
| Losers | Sector | Week |
|---|---|---|
| LITE | Technology | -35.9% |
| STX | Technology | -28.5% |
| MRVL | Technology | -28.1% |
| WDC | Technology | -28.0% |
| SNDK | Technology | -27.4% |
Earnings this week, after the fact#
| Company | Reported | Move | S&P 500 | Its usual move | Bigger than |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOS | Tue 3 Nov, after the close | +17.4% | +1.7% | ±4.2% | 12 of 12 past |
| MCD | Wed 4 Nov, before the open | +6.5% | +1.7% | ±2.0% | 12 of 12 past |
| IDXX | Mon 2 Nov, before the open | +21.8% | -0.5% | ±6.8% | 11 of 12 past |
| BKNG | Tue 3 Nov, after the close | +9.8% | +1.7% | ±3.4% | 11 of 12 past |
| LITE | Mon 2 Nov, before the open | -18.6% | -0.5% | ±7.2% | 10 of 12 past |
| FISV | Tue 3 Nov, before the open | +12.5% | +0.3% | ±4.9% | 9 of 12 past |
| APP | Wed 4 Nov, after the close | +31.0% | -4.4% | ±14.3% | 11 of 12 past |
| ABNB | Thu 5 Nov, after the close | +11.7% | +0.3% | ±5.8% | 9 of 12 past |
| AAPL | Mon 2 Nov, after the close | -1.9% | +0.3% | ±1.0% | 7 of 12 past |
| QCOM | Wed 4 Nov, after the close | -9.5% | -4.4% | ±6.8% | 10 of 12 past |
| PFE | Tue 3 Nov, before the open | -2.2% | +0.3% | ±1.6% | 8 of 12 past |
| AMGN | Tue 3 Nov, after the close | +3.7% | +1.7% | ±5.1% | 3 of 12 past |
These are selected, not a sample: of the 14 companies we checked that reported this week (the largest companies, those on last week's schedule and this week's biggest movers), the table shows the 12 whose moves were largest against their own usual move. Among these 12 selected earnings reactions, 11 moved more than the company's own typical earnings-day move; that says how they were picked, not how earnings go in general. A 5% move on results is ordinary for some companies and rare for others, so each move is set against the same company's past reports rather than against the market. The move includes everything else that happened on those days; the S&P 500 column is the whole market over the same days. "Its usual move" is the median size of the company's moves, up or down, on up to 12 earlier reports.
Last week's movers, one week on#
| Last week's mover | Was a | Last week | This week |
|---|---|---|---|
| PNR | gainer | +19.8% | +2.8% |
| VRT | gainer | +19.6% | -21.4% |
| CVNA | gainer | +18.1% | +7.7% |
| GEN | gainer | +17.1% | +2.3% |
| GPN | gainer | +16.9% | +0.6% |
| RDDT | loser | -36.4% | +3.7% |
| NOW | loser | -33.9% | -3.0% |
| ALNY | loser | -26.3% | -5.5% |
| FFIV | loser | -25.7% | -8.1% |
| FTNT | loser | -24.4% | -12.7% |
4 of last week's 5 biggest gainers rose again this week (average -1.6%); 4 of last week's 5 biggest losers fell again this week (average -5.1%). Five names a side is far too few to say whether big weekly moves tend to continue or reverse: the record builds up week by week.
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What this week does not tell us#
- Most stocks fell with the index. The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, but 51% of the 518 stocks we track rose and the median stock gained 0.2%. The index was pulled down by its largest members: the equal-weight S&P 500 fell only 1.0%.
- Technology and energy now lead the way down. They fell 8.2% and 12.0% in one week. Over 19 comparisons of one 13-week period with the next, the top sectors stayed on top about as often as chance would give, so one week says little about the next quarter.
- 102 big moves shows what caused the week. 102 stocks moved more than 10%, far above a bell curve's range (15–29) and more than in any of the past 52 weeks: an unusual week by both measures. It cannot say why. Stocks moving together (correlation 0.26 against a typical 0.11) and fat tails can each produce a count like this.
- The election explains the week. Thursday's fall came alongside company results, an oil jump and rate news reported the same day, and much of it reached stocks outside the exposed groups. Two days of prices cannot separate those.
Scheduled next week#
- CSCO reports earnings on Fri 13 Nov
Data: index, sector, style and thematic ETF, VIX and named-stock prices from Yahoo Finance (adjusted closes); earnings dates and times from Yahoo Finance; breadth (overall and by sector and day), dispersion (overall and within each sector), how closely stocks moved together, highs and lows and the luck check computed from unadjusted daily closes of our 518-stock tracked universe (the US stocks, drawn from S&P 500 names, that our trading database tracks, with each share class counted (FOX/FOXA, NWS/NWSA); this list is not reconciled with the index's official constituents for the week, and at 518 it is larger than the index's ~503 lines, so it includes some stocks that are not current members), published as aggregates only. Weeks run Friday close to Friday close. Not investment advice.
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